Kugenda muri Amerika ya Aluminium na Steel: Ingamba kubohereza ibicuruzwa hanze mubushinwa muri 2025

I. Ubwihindurize nuburyo bugezweho bwa Politiki y’ibiciro muri Amerika kuri Aluminium na Steel

Ingamba za leta ya Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika ku bicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu n’ibyuma by’Ubushinwa byazamutse cyane kuva mu mwaka wa 2018. Ku ikubitiro byibasiye ibintu byihariye bivugwa mu gice cya 301, urwego rwagutse buhoro buhoro kugira ngo ibicuruzwa byose bitunganyirizwa muri aluminiyumu bitarenze 2024. Icyiciro giheruka, guhera muri Mutarama 2025, cyazamuye imisoro ku cyuma gikoresha amashanyarazi kugera kuri 50%, ibinyabiziga by’amashanyarazi bigera kuri 100%, n’ibyuma / aluminium bigera kuri 25% (Imbonerahamwe 1). Izi politiki zigamije 'kurinda umutekano w’igihugu ' no gukemura ibibazo bigaragara 'imikorere y’ubucuruzi idakwiye, ' harimo inkunga n’ubushobozi buke.

II. Ingaruka zitaziguye kandi zitaziguye kuri Chine ya Aluminium n’ibyuma byoherezwa mu mahanga

Ingaruka Zitaziguye

• Kugabanuka kw'ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga: Mu 2023, ibicuruzwa byoherejwe na aluminiyumu yo mu Bushinwa byibasiwe n’amahoro yo mu gice cya 301 yarengeje toni 320.000 za metero, harimo toni 88.000 z’inzugi za aluminium / amadirishya na toni 6.100 y’ibikoresho byo mu miyoboro (Ishami ry’ubucuruzi rya Shandong, 2024). Hamwe no kuzamura ibiciro bya 25%, ibyo bicuruzwa bihinduka-guhatanira ibiciro ku isoko ry’Amerika.

• Gutandukana kw'isoko: Abashinwa bohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga bimukiye mu turere nko mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya no mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, aho usanga ibikoresho by'ubwubatsi bwa aluminiyumu bigenda byiyongera. Nyamara, uku gutandukana guhura n’ibibazo kubera inzitizi z’ubucuruzi mu karere n’ibiciro by’ibikoresho.

Ingaruka Zitaziguye

• Ihungabana ry’ubucuruzi ku isi: Intambara y’ubucuruzi hagati y’Amerika n’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi mu 2025, yatewe n’ibiciro by’icyuma / aluminiyumu, byateje amakenga ku masoko y’isi. Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi wihorera kuri miliyari 26 z’amadolari y’ibicuruzwa byo muri Amerika (urugero, whiski, ipikipiki) bikomeza kugora inzira z’ubucuruzi ku bahuza Ubushinwa.

• Mexico nka Transit Hub: Kugira ngo wirengagize ibiciro by’Amerika, bamwe mu bakora inganda mu Bushinwa bahinduye ibicuruzwa binyuze muri Mexico. Nyamara, amategeko mashya ya Amerika na Mexico arasaba ko ibyuma / aluminiyumu bitumizwa mu mahanga gushonga mu gihugu cyangwa gutabwa muri Amerika ya Ruguru, bigahagarika neza iki cyuho (White House, 2024).

III. Ingamba zifatika kubashinwa boherejwe na aluminium na Steel

1. Gutandukanya isoko nubufatanye bwakarere

2. Agaciro kongerewe ibicuruzwa Gutezimbere

3. Kwishyira hamwe no gushora hamwe

4. Ubuvugizi bwa politiki n'imbogamizi zemewe n'amategeko

IV. Ibihe bizaza hamwe nibyifuzo birebire

Ibibazo by'igihe gito

• Umusaruro w’ibyuma / aluminiyumu yo muri Amerika ukomeje kuba udahagije kugira ngo uhuze ibyifuzo, biganisha ku kubura no kuzamuka kw'ibiciro ku nganda zo hasi nko kubaka no gukora amamodoka (Financial Times, 2025).

• Igipimo cy’ifaranga ry’Amerika, giterwa igice n’ibiciro biterwa n’amahoro, biteganijwe ko kizakomeza kuba hejuru ya 4% mu 2025, bikagabanya imbaraga zo kugura abaguzi.

Amahirwe maremare

• Igabanuka ry’Ubushinwa ku bicuruzwa byatumijwe mu mahanga kuri aluminiyumu n’umuringa bitunganijwe neza (guhera muri Mutarama 2025) byerekana ko hahindutse imikorere y’imbere mu gihugu. Uku kwimuka gushobora kugabanya ibiciro byumusaruro kubashinwa kandi bikazamura irushanwa ryisi yose.

• Umushinga wa Belt and Road Initiative ukomeje guteza imbere ibikorwa remezo ku masoko agaragara, hashyirwaho ubundi buryo bwo kwinjiza ibicuruzwa byohereza hanze ya aluminium.

Ibyifuzo

1. Shimangira R&D: Shora imari muri tekinoroji ya aluminiyumu kugirango uhuze na decarbonisation yisi yose.

2. Koresha Amasezerano Yubucuruzi Yubusa: Koresha uburyo nka RCEP kugirango ugabanye ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mumasoko ya ASEAN.

3. Kongera amasoko yo gutanga amasoko: Kwemeza sisitemu yo gukurikirana ishingiye kuri blocain kugirango igenzure inkomoko y'ibicuruzwa kandi yubahirize amategeko ya Amerika.

V.Umwanzuro

Igiciro cya aluminium n’ibyuma muri Amerika bitanga imbogamizi zikomeye ku bicuruzwa byohereza ibicuruzwa mu Bushinwa, ariko ingamba zifatika zishobora kugabanya ingaruka. Mugutandukanya amasoko, guhanga ibicuruzwa, no kwishora mubufatanye bwakarere, ibigo birashobora kugendana nubucuruzi bugenda butera imbere. Mugihe urwego rwogutanga amasoko kwisi rukomeje kuvugururwa, guhuza n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere no gutekereza imbere bizaba urufunguzo rwo gutsinda.

Umuzingo wa aluminiyumu Yatanzwe na Changzhou Dingang Metal Material Co., Ltd.

Menyesha Robert Kubaza ibyo Ukeneye.

Robert Tang (Igurisha)

robert@cnchangsong.com

0086 159 6120 6328 (whatsapp & wechat)